Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 52.6%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 57.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.9%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 9: Nugent-Hopkins 4-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (408)
57.0% (718)
-6.0%
Power Play
0.0% (6)
64.9% (188)
-64.9%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (78)
44.2% (77)
-8.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
50.8% (258)
59.2% (463)
Away
44.9% (234)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
51.6%
56.3%
P2
45.2%
55.4%
P3
47.6%
60.5%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |