Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.0%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 71.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (479)
54.1% (717)
-3.8%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
61.9% (210)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (50)
58.1% (31)
-28.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
48.9% (270)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.1% (287)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
48.7%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
47.3%
56.6%
OT
36.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |