Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 33 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 46-42 in 88 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 68.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.6%
28.4%
71.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
42
(88 meetings)
46
42
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
15
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
19
14
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
14
13
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,756)
53.8% (8,268)
-8.9%
Power Play
50.7% (839)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (879)
46.3% (806)
-8.4%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
46.5% (5,350)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
42.9% (5,136)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
45.1%
53.6%
P2
43.9%
54.1%
P3
45.3%
55.3%
OT
43.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 20, 2023 | OT | 02:55 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |