Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 80.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 5: Nugent-Hopkins 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (231)
58.1% (823)
-10.5%
Power Play
83.3% (12)
56.2% (265)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (21)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
51.2% (164)
59.7% (561)
Away
43.0% (100)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
50.0%
51.6%
P2
46.2%
63.8%
P3
49.5%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |