Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 20-16 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 57.7%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.2%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 59.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
20
(36 meetings)
16
20
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 3-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
3
7
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
7
6
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
6
7
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,756)
51.8% (7,849)
-6.9%
Power Play
50.7% (839)
54.8% (1,048)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (879)
44.2% (1,109)
-6.3%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Home
46.5% (5,350)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
42.9% (5,136)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
P1
45.1%
50.3%
P2
43.9%
51.3%
P3
45.3%
52.4%
OT
43.5%
44.9%
Final 5 min
43.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:30 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:01 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 01:16 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 03:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |