Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs William Karlsson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 54.9%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 60.9%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 61.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (479)
58.6% (597)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
57.9% (57)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (50)
51.9% (52)
-21.9%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
Home
48.9% (270)
59.6% (344)
Away
48.1% (287)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Karlsson
P1
48.7%
53.1%
P2
50.0%
62.1%
P3
47.3%
60.1%
OT
36.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | William Karlsson |