Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +18.5% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 43.9% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-18.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 71.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.4%
Neutral zone
Tuch 52.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Tuch
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tuch
O'Reilly
Last 5: Tuch 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
2
0
Tuch
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Tuch
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Tuch
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
31.7% (60)
57.1% (1,367)
-25.4%
Power Play
46.2% (52)
59.4% (286)
-13.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tuch is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (90).
Tuch shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Tuch
O'Reilly
Home
41.7% (48)
59.2% (936)
Away
35.9% (64)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Tuch
O'Reilly
P1
34.2%
57.3%
P2
32.6%
57.5%
P3
50.0%
55.0%
OT
100.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
34.8%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
38.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |