Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.4% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Nelson
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (347)
56.9% (1,203)
-7.3%
Power Play
20.8% (24)
60.2% (329)
-39.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
50.4% (280)
+2.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +39.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
52.9% (210)
58.6% (879)
Away
42.1% (178)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
43.9%
55.6%
P2
48.1%
57.9%
P3
53.1%
55.7%
OT
40.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
42.7%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 03:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |