Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Blackwell wins 39.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 84.8%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 73.6%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 51.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Last 6: Blackwell 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Blackwell
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
2
0
Blackwell
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
1
0
Blackwell
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (172)
55.4% (826)
-7.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
57.9% (221)
-57.9%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (82)
50.4% (129)
-18.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Blackwell is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Blackwell shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Home
43.8% (144)
55.8% (579)
Away
41.1% (112)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Blackwell
O'Reilly
P1
45.3%
57.7%
P2
36.1%
54.8%
P3
46.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |