Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.2%). Lindholm wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 56.3%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 57.5%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 51.2%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
55.3% (815)
-0.9%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
58.0% (219)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
49.2% (124)
+0.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (541)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.7% (428)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
54.8%
57.5%
P2
55.7%
54.7%
P3
55.6%
54.1%
OT
0.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |