Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Vilardi wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.5% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Vilardi 90.6%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 85.7%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 88.6%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Vilardi 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
8
Vilardi
O'Reilly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
Vilardi
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
Vilardi
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (564)
58.6% (841)
-13.4%
Power Play
53.3% (45)
59.9% (207)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
58.1% (148)
-10.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Vilardi is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Vilardi shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Home
47.3% (330)
59.8% (594)
Away
44.4% (304)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Vilardi
O'Reilly
P1
49.0%
61.7%
P2
43.2%
56.2%
P3
45.7%
59.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 14:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |