Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dickinson wins 42.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 45.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dickinson 81.5%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 82.1%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 86.3%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Last 8: Dickinson 1-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Dickinson
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Dickinson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Dickinson
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (404)
57.3% (1,073)
-11.8%
Power Play
25.0% (12)
58.5% (258)
-33.5%
Penalty Kill
29.0% (31)
50.7% (225)
-21.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +33.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dickinson is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Dickinson shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Dickinson
O'Reilly
Home
50.2% (219)
59.2% (765)
Away
37.7% (228)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Dickinson
O'Reilly
P1
45.0%
55.6%
P2
41.1%
61.0%
P3
45.0%
52.3%
OT
55.6%
61.3%
Final 5 min
38.9%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
43.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 2 | 07:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 16:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |