Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 81.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 50.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.6%
33.4%
66.6%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
O'Reilly
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Tavares
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
56.1% (690)
+1.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
64.6% (96)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
45.9% (109)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
61.0% (661)
58.3% (408)
Away
55.3% (584)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
58.6%
57.7%
P2
57.8%
54.8%
P3
58.4%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
63.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 16:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 06:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |