Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Drouin wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 87.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.7%
Neutral zone
Drouin 78.8%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Drouin
O'Reilly
Last 5: Drouin 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Drouin
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (140)
57.9% (1,179)
-14.3%
Power Play
43.6% (78)
63.0% (292)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
53.8% (320)
-3.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
45.4% (108)
61.3% (884)
Away
42.0% (112)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
46.0%
55.5%
P2
38.6%
61.0%
P3
46.1%
56.8%
OT
66.7%
67.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
43.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 14:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 12:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |