Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Drouin wins 35.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 46.3% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 86.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Drouin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Drouin
O'Reilly
Last 5: Drouin 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Drouin
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (57)
57.1% (1,367)
-23.8%
Power Play
55.2% (29)
59.4% (286)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
52.5% (257)
+47.5%
On penalty kill, Drouin has a +47.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Drouin is 35.1% vs left-shot opponents (57).
Drouin shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Drouin
O'Reilly
Home
39.0% (41)
59.2% (936)
Away
44.7% (47)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Drouin
O'Reilly
P1
54.2%
57.3%
P2
40.0%
57.5%
P3
30.8%
55.0%
OT
66.7%
71.1%
Final 5 min
35.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
48.0%▼
50.5%
42.0%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |