Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 84.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
Duchene
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
O'Reilly
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Duchene
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
55.4% (826)
-4.2%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
57.9% (221)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.4% (129)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Reilly
Home
51.6% (182)
55.8% (579)
Away
52.2% (201)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Duchene
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
57.7%
P2
56.2%
54.8%
P3
48.6%
54.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |