Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-2 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 56.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 89.4%
Neutral zone
McLeod 70.6%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
12
(14 meetings)
2
12
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 10: McLeod 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
7
McLeod
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
McLeod
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (904)
56.2% (983)
-3.3%
Power Play
57.6% (59)
55.5% (254)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (241)
52.0% (102)
-3.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
51.8% (612)
56.2% (697)
Away
52.9% (592)
55.1% (642)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
55.4%
54.5%
P2
50.8%
55.5%
P3
51.6%
57.1%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |