Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 52.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Last 9: O'Reilly 5-4 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
O'Reilly
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
48.0% (1,413)
+8.2%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
45.7% (46)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
43.5% (184)
+7.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Lafferty
Home
57.6% (10,762)
47.3% (833)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
47.5% (810)
By Period
O'Reilly
Lafferty
P1
55.6%
49.4%
P2
57.0%
43.1%
P3
55.1%
49.8%
OT
62.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:08 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 12:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |