Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.7% vs Monahan 53.1% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 54.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 55.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (669)
53.8% (664)
+0.8%
Power Play
57.3% (171)
53.3% (137)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.0% (62)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (530).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
56.4% (486)
54.8% (405)
Away
54.0% (441)
52.2% (458)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
55.3%
49.6%
P2
53.4%
53.9%
P3
56.9%
55.2%
OT
55.0%
65.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |