Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 9: O'Reilly 4-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
4
O'Reilly
Monahan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
51.5% (641)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
62.8% (129)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
33.3% (9)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
54.9% (801)
53.9% (362)
Away
58.7% (784)
52.5% (417)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
58.0%
48.0%
P2
56.7%
57.0%
P3
55.4%
54.1%
OT
64.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 3 | 16:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 2 | 03:02 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2022 | 1 | 08:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |