Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Monahan 54.5% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 68.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
1
O'Reilly
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
57.1% (871)
-2.1%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
53.1% (262)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
44.6% (139)
-4.3%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
54.8% (759)
55.3% (644)
Away
53.0% (777)
54.5% (628)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
55.3%
53.9%
P2
51.9%
55.3%
P3
54.2%
54.4%
OT
64.7%
76.5%
Final 5 min
56.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |