Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 55.1%). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Monahan 53.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 55.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
54.5% (231)
+1.6%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
58.2% (67)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
52.2% (23)
-6.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
58.3% (408)
53.5% (144)
Away
53.6% (487)
56.5% (177)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
57.7%
52.5%
P2
54.8%
50.9%
P3
55.2%
60.8%
OT
45.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |