Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Monahan 52.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 54.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 6: O'Reilly 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
53.2% (823)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
55.3% (159)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
48.4% (95)
+2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
55.8% (579)
54.6% (529)
Away
54.9% (597)
51.6% (548)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
57.7%
49.0%
P2
54.8%
55.4%
P3
54.3%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |