Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Monahan 52.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
52.4% (853)
+3.8%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
58.6% (174)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
46.5% (144)
+5.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
56.2% (697)
53.4% (624)
Away
55.1% (642)
51.7% (547)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
54.5%
53.7%
P2
55.5%
52.4%
P3
57.1%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 00:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |