Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Pinto 50.1% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 88.6%
Defensive zone
Pinto 59.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 70.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
O'Reilly
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
O'Reilly
Pinto
Last 9: O'Reilly 6-3 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Pinto
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
O'Reilly
Pinto
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Pinto
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
50.4% (779)
+5.8%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
55.2% (29)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
44.9% (78)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Pinto is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Pinto
Home
56.2% (697)
52.4% (454)
Away
55.1% (642)
47.7% (432)
By Period
O'Reilly
Pinto
P1
54.5%
48.1%
P2
55.5%
52.9%
P3
57.1%
49.3%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:08 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |