Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Pinto 50.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 89.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 80.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
O'Reilly
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
O'Reilly
Pinto
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
2
O'Reilly
Pinto
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
5
8
O'Reilly
Pinto
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
2
O'Reilly
Pinto
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
50.6% (2,716)
+5.6%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
54.4% (90)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
44.9% (234)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Pinto is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,185).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Pinto
Home
57.6% (10,762)
50.9% (1,501)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
49.6% (1,539)
By Period
O'Reilly
Pinto
P1
55.6%
48.3%
P2
57.0%
51.7%
P3
55.1%
50.9%
OT
62.2%
46.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:11 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:03 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:08 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |