Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Wright 45.1% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.7%
Defensive zone
Wright 61.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 53.8%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
O'Reilly
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
O'Reilly
Wright
Last 6: O'Reilly 3-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
0
3
O'Reilly
Wright
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
43.9% (758)
+12.3%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
50.7% (67)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
40.0% (5)
+12.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Wright
Home
56.2% (697)
46.3% (406)
Away
55.1% (642)
42.7% (424)
By Period
O'Reilly
Wright
P1
54.5%
46.8%
P2
55.5%
42.6%
P3
57.1%
44.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |