Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Wright 41.4% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 88.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
O'Reilly
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
O'Reilly
Wright
Last 5: O'Reilly 4-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Wright
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
39.5% (453)
+15.9%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
42.4% (59)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
0.0% (1)
+50.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +50.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
O'Reilly shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Wright
Home
55.8% (579)
39.5% (286)
Away
54.9% (597)
40.1% (227)
By Period
O'Reilly
Wright
P1
57.7%
39.9%
P2
54.8%
37.1%
P3
54.3%
42.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |