Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Wright 43.3% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 92.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
O'Reilly
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
O'Reilly
Wright
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Wright
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
1
3
O'Reilly
Wright
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
42.6% (1,318)
+13.6%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
45.8% (131)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
33.3% (6)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Wright
Home
57.6% (10,762)
44.2% (746)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
41.5% (709)
By Period
O'Reilly
Wright
P1
55.6%
44.4%
P2
57.0%
40.7%
P3
55.1%
44.0%
OT
62.2%
20.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |