Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.2% vs Crosby 49.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 60.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 63.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 5: O'Reilly 4-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (900)
49.4% (1,194)
+3.3%
Power Play
55.6% (225)
52.6% (350)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (209)
43.4% (53)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
55.1% (693)
51.3% (776)
Away
51.6% (641)
48.6% (821)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
51.5%
50.5%
P2
54.7%
51.3%
P3
52.7%
47.8%
OT
69.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2015 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2015 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2015 | 1 | 19:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 18, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 18, 2014 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |