Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Crosby 57.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
4
O'Reilly
Crosby
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
57.8% (1,437)
-2.8%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
60.9% (381)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
50.0% (54)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
54.8% (759)
59.2% (985)
Away
53.0% (777)
57.2% (887)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
55.3%
57.3%
P2
51.9%
59.5%
P3
54.2%
58.5%
OT
64.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:20 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |