Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Crosby 56.6% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 51.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 55.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
56.2% (1,451)
+0.0%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
61.4% (293)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
55.3% (38)
-3.3%
On power play, Crosby has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
56.2% (697)
59.1% (939)
Away
55.1% (642)
54.7% (843)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
54.5%
54.9%
P2
55.5%
60.8%
P3
57.1%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |