Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 55.9%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Crosby 55.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 67.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.6%
Neutral zone
Crosby 50.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
15
(29 meetings)
14
15
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
5
6
O'Reilly
Crosby
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
6
8
O'Reilly
Crosby
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
53.7% (984)
+1.7%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
64.7% (241)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
64.3% (14)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (879).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
55.8% (579)
56.9% (649)
Away
54.9% (597)
54.9% (590)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
57.7%
55.8%
P2
54.8%
53.2%
P3
54.3%
58.7%
OT
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |