Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Crosby 52.3% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 16-6 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 60.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 73.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
6
(22 meetings)
16
6
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 9-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
5
O'Reilly
Crosby
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
0
O'Reilly
Crosby
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
50.8% (1,169)
+5.8%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
60.2% (261)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
45.0% (20)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (929).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
54.9% (801)
53.2% (726)
Away
58.7% (784)
51.7% (724)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
58.0%
51.3%
P2
56.7%
52.1%
P3
55.4%
54.1%
OT
64.7%
45.8%
Final 5 min
56.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |