Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 72 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Crosby 53.5% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 112-91 in 203 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 70.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
112
-
91
(203 meetings)
112
91
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
30
44
O'Reilly
Crosby
74 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
54
18
O'Reilly
Crosby
72 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
28
29
O'Reilly
Crosby
57 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
52.8% (17,990)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
57.4% (4,733)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
47.1% (765)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,851).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
57.6% (10,762)
55.0% (11,972)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
52.0% (11,535)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
55.6%
53.6%
P2
57.0%
53.9%
P3
55.1%
53.3%
OT
62.2%
49.6%
Final 5 min
55.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |