Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). O'Reilly wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 57.6% vs Crosby 48.3% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 21-8 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 97.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 92.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
8
(29 meetings)
21
8
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 9-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
4
O'Reilly
Crosby
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
O'Reilly
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (1,179)
46.8% (1,360)
+11.1%
Power Play
63.0% (292)
53.8% (357)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (320)
45.2% (31)
+8.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,127).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
61.3% (884)
51.0% (867)
Away
54.8% (907)
45.4% (881)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
55.5%
50.8%
P2
61.0%
47.9%
P3
56.8%
46.5%
OT
67.7%
35.1%
Final 5 min
55.6%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 15:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 2 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |