Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stützle shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Stützle 52.9% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stützle 54.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
O'Reilly
Stützle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
O'Reilly
Stützle
Last 7: O'Reilly 4-3 Stützle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stützle
0
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stützle
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
53.0% (485)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
55.2% (58)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
56.7% (30)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Stützle has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stützle shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stützle is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stützle
Home
55.8% (579)
52.5% (282)
Away
54.9% (597)
54.3% (291)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stützle
P1
57.7%
52.1%
P2
54.8%
56.2%
P3
54.3%
52.0%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Stützle
54.0%▲
50.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |