Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stützle shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Stützle 45.8% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 93.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 94.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 93.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 93.8%
93.8%
6.2%
O'Reilly
Stützle
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
O'Reilly
Stützle
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Stützle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Stützle
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Stützle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Stützle
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stützle
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
45.1% (2,292)
+11.1%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
55.4% (101)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
47.7% (86)
+3.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stützle shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stützle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,489).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stützle
Home
57.6% (10,762)
47.7% (1,282)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
43.4% (1,197)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stützle
P1
55.6%
47.1%
P2
57.0%
45.4%
P3
55.1%
44.1%
OT
62.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Stützle
54.0%▲
50.5%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Tim Stützle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tim Stützle |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Tim Stützle |