Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Zegras 46.9% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 89.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 90.2%
90.2%
9.8%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
O'Reilly
Zegras
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
44.2% (86)
+14.4%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
40.0% (10)
+19.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (68).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
59.8% (594)
44.8% (29)
Away
57.8% (602)
43.3% (67)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
61.7%
41.4%
P2
56.2%
47.1%
P3
59.5%
42.4%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 18:30 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2021 | 2 | 05:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |