Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +17.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Zegras 39.2% (+17.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 24-10 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 99.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 98.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 96.2%
96.2%
3.8%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
10
(34 meetings)
24
10
O'Reilly
Zegras
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
3
O'Reilly
Zegras
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
5
O'Reilly
Zegras
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
38.6% (1,669)
+17.6%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
38.5% (148)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
28.6% (7)
+22.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
57.6% (10,762)
39.9% (882)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
37.4% (942)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
55.6%
40.2%
P2
57.0%
38.0%
P3
55.1%
37.7%
OT
62.2%
31.6%
Final 5 min
55.3%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |