Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 57.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Zegras 41.3% (+19.1%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 50.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
O'Reilly
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
36.5% (156)
+19.7%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
40.7% (27)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
0.0% (3)
+52.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +52.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (138).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
56.2% (697)
38.9% (113)
Away
55.1% (642)
32.9% (73)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
54.5%
40.0%
P2
55.5%
38.1%
P3
57.1%
31.6%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
36.6%