Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +25.1% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Zegras 35.4% (+25.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 62.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
29.6% (230)
+25.8%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
32.1% (56)
+25.8%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
100.0% (1)
-49.6%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +49.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
55.8% (579)
30.6% (147)
Away
54.9% (597)
30.0% (140)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
57.7%
33.0%
P2
54.8%
31.7%
P3
54.3%
25.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |