Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Zegras 42.6% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 97.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 94.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 93.5%
93.5%
6.5%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
Last 10: O'Reilly 9-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
41.1% (559)
+15.0%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
50.0% (12)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
50.0% (2)
-4.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
58.3% (408)
45.7% (247)
Away
53.6% (487)
38.0% (326)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
57.7%
45.5%
P2
54.8%
36.8%
P3
55.2%
41.1%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 16:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |