Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.8% vs Seguin 52.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 9: O'Reilly 6-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (815)
53.2% (201)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.0% (219)
60.0% (25)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (124)
44.4% (9)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
55.8% (579)
56.3% (126)
Away
54.6% (579)
50.5% (109)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
57.5%
44.3%
P2
54.7%
52.1%
P3
54.1%
62.5%
OT
48.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |