Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Seguin 55.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.5%
Defensive zone
Seguin 62.9%
Neutral zone
Seguin 50.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
4
O'Reilly
Seguin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
56.9% (478)
-1.9%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
57.4% (54)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (149)
51.3% (76)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
54.8% (759)
57.4% (317)
Away
53.0% (777)
55.0% (291)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
55.3%
50.3%
P2
51.9%
60.4%
P3
54.2%
58.0%
OT
64.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.3%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |