Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.8% vs 56.0%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Seguin 55.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 50.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
3
O'Reilly
Seguin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
56.5% (712)
+0.1%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
59.7% (67)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
44.9% (49)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
54.9% (801)
58.5% (402)
Away
58.7% (784)
53.8% (426)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
58.0%
58.4%
P2
56.7%
54.7%
P3
55.4%
54.1%
OT
64.7%
72.7%
Final 5 min
56.4%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2022 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 08:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 01:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:08 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 06:19 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |