Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Seguin 51.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Defensive zone
Seguin 53.8%
Neutral zone
Seguin 60.6%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
O'Reilly
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
54.8% (135)
+1.4%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
58.3% (24)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
26.7% (15)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
56.2% (697)
47.4% (95)
Away
55.1% (642)
59.5% (79)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
54.5%
50.8%
P2
55.5%
57.1%
P3
57.1%
51.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |