Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 62 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Seguin 53.6% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 86-84 in 170 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
86
-
84
(170 meetings)
86
84
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 10: O'Reilly 6-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
32
27
O'Reilly
Seguin
59 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
27
35
O'Reilly
Seguin
62 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
27
22
O'Reilly
Seguin
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
53.7% (8,071)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
55.9% (810)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
49.3% (762)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
57.6% (10,762)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
55.6%
52.8%
P2
57.0%
53.3%
P3
55.1%
54.7%
OT
62.2%
54.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |