Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Seguin 54.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 56.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.1%
Neutral zone
Seguin 51.3%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
55.0% (713)
+1.1%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
56.7% (104)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
47.2% (53)
-1.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
58.3% (408)
56.2% (443)
Away
53.6% (487)
53.2% (427)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
57.7%
54.2%
P2
54.8%
52.9%
P3
55.2%
57.1%
OT
45.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |