Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.8%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.2% vs Seguin 53.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 56.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
O'Reilly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
O'Reilly
Seguin
Last 6: O'Reilly 4-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (900)
53.9% (482)
-1.2%
Power Play
55.6% (225)
35.3% (17)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (209)
75.0% (12)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
O'Reilly shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Seguin
Home
55.1% (693)
58.9% (231)
Away
51.6% (641)
49.6% (280)
By Period
O'Reilly
Seguin
P1
51.5%
51.5%
P2
54.7%
48.5%
P3
52.7%
61.7%
OT
69.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 06:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |